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Event Registration - Geopolitical Risk Training for Investors and CFA Charterholders

Thursday, February 22, 2018
8:30 AM - 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time
Geopolitical Risk Training For Investors and CFA Charterholders
Instructor: Dr. Tsveta Petrova, Eurasia Group

Global investors increasingly recognize that, in an interconnected and complex world, geopolitics and country politics matter at least as much as economic fundamentals to the economic performance of markets worldwide. Many of the forecasting questions investors are grappling with today – for example, what will be the markets impact of the populist wave sweeping through Europe and the US, how will China manage a precarious economic slowdown, or how will Emerging Market governments respond to the rising expectations of their new middle classes – have a political dimension. As a result, investors will increasingly need the relevant analytical tools to successfully identify, assess, and manage political risks.

This 2.5 hour exclusive executive education program structured and directed by Eurasia Group will help investment professionals identify political risks and opportunities that may have a profound impact on future investments and strategy. Participants will gain an understanding of the interactions of politics, economics, and markets, enabling them to anticipate the likely outcomes of key geopolitical and country-level issues that affect their decisions.


Section 1: Introduction to political risk analysis
Duration: 30 mins

Political risk consists of any political change or event that alters the expected value of a given economic action. For firms and investors, political risk can be described as the potential for politics or policy to affect an investment or business. Because it is difficult to operationalize, political risk is an underused and undervalued indicator of economic decision making.

In the first session, Dr. Petrova will introduce the key themes and concepts critical for political risk analysis, enabling investors to better assess relative risk across countries and sectors. She will offer political stability (institutions, elections, and regime change) as a framework for understanding political risk at the global, regional, and domestic level, utilizing real world examples to discuss the ways in which firms and investors approach political risk.

Section 1a: Political risks for Financial Markets
Duration: 30 mins

In this session, Dr. Petrova will walk through the top risks of H2 2017. In doing so, Tsveta will highlight the impact of politics on various asset classes in frontier, emerging, and developed markets.

Section 2: Analyzing political risk I — Qualitative techniques
Duration: 30 mins

In the second session, we will lay out a qualitative framework for assessing political risk – an approach rooted in an understanding of political risk as defined by the actions of key players with distinctive agendas that are nonetheless constrained by their national, subnational, and international environments. We will apply this framework to current events, particularly how to assess and forecast the behaviors of leaders when their decisions defy political processes and thus, analytical frameworks.

Section 3: Analyzing political risk II – Quantitative techniques
Duration: 30 mins

In this session, we will discuss some ways to quantitatively assess and analyze political risk. We will examine the most established political risk indices, including each index design, the data used to populate it, and its strengths and weaknesses.

Section 4: Group Exercise – Case Studies
Duration: 30 mins

The last session will consist of a group exercise that will employ a combination of qualitative and quantitative analytical tools. This session will be designed to allow participants the opportunity to put these frameworks to use in a practical context that is applicable to their respective careers.

Tsveta Petrova

Academic background
PhD in Political Science, Cornell University
Areas of expertise
Political risk training
Research methods
Central and Eastern Europe

Tsveta Petrova leads EG Labs, which combines the firm's Politics First approach with advanced technology—leveraging big data and predictive analytics, as well as other tech-enabled solutions, to meet client needs through both partnerships and proprietary work.

Tsveta, who earned a bachelor's degree and a doctorate in political science from Cornell University, has held post-doctoral fellowships at the Davis Center at Harvard University, the National Endowment for Democracy, and the Harriman Institute at Columbia University. She is the author of "From Solidarity to Geopolitics" (Cambridge University Press, 2014). She has experience with qualitative, quantitative, and experimental research methods.
Putnam Investments
1 Post Office Sqaure
Boston, MA 02109
Description:Member: $150&
Non-Member: $250
CE CreditCFA Boston has determined that this event qualifies for 2.5 CE credit hours under the guidelines of CFA Institute's Continuing Education Program. If you are a CFA Institute member, CE credit for your participation in this event will be automatically recorded in your CE tracking tool.